Oil prices have surged — and the ripple effects are extending well beyond the energy market. With supply disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, inflation risks rising, and potential implications for Fed policy and economic growth, investors are reassessing what comes next. In our latest commentary, we break down what’s driving the oil spike, why it matters for markets, and how investors can stay focused amid volatility.

Markets fell after a coalition of the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. Subsequent attacks by Iran on neighboring countries further intensified the conflict. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—the only sea passage to the Persian Gulf and a key route for transporting goods, including crude oil—declined sharply. Consequently, both the production and transportation of crude oil have been significantly impacted leading to higher oil prices. On the economic front, Nonfarm Payrolls fell by 92K in February, partially impacted by snow weather.

Geopolitical headlines are back in the driver’s seat, and markets are repricing uncertainty quickly. In our latest commentary, we unpack what’s behind the recent market reaction, why volatility may be higher this time, what we’re watching next, and why discipline and diversification matter most in uncertain environments.

The three major U.S. equity averages finished mixed in February with the S&P 500 down a second time in the past three months and the Nasdaq Composite (-3.33%) posting its worst month since March 2025. Investors shifted out of Big Tech mega cap stocks and rotated into cyclical-based sectors and other traditional safe havens including U.S. Treasurys and precious metals. Wall Street woes included mounting tariff repercussions following the Supreme Court IEEPA decision, geopolitical risks in Iran, and selective selloffs in artificial intelligence (AI) related stocks.

AI-related concerns continue to weigh on markets as investors assess the potential impact on traditional business models, including software companies. These concerns have spread to private credit markets, which play a critical role in financing non-public software companies, contributing to broader market unease. Nvidia Inc. reported earnings on Wednesday that exceeded expectations, but the results were not sufficient to restore investor confidence. Meanwhile, inconclusive negotiations between the U.S. and Iran added to geopolitical uncertainty, further weighing on market sentiment.

Geopolitical headlines are adding a new layer of uncertainty for investors, but markets are showing resilience. In our latest commentary, the Cetera Investment Management team breaks down the recent escalation in the Middle East, what it could mean for energy markets and inflation, and why global equities may avoid a disorderly selloff.